I hardly ever watch television. But, on the rare occasions when I let myself sink into the sofa in search of some distraction (which ends up not distracting me at all!), it's curious how I almost always end up in front of an episode of Black Mirror. When I read The Coming Waveby Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar earlier this year, I had the same feeling as watching an episode: discomfort and reflection.
Many of the passages in the book sound like scenes from a science fiction movie. And yet they are descriptions of real events, or events that could easily happen in the not too distant future.
I'm not writing with fanfare. But there is a silent and urgent call for us to start talking about the world we are creating. Perhaps what scares me most is not the speed of the changes, but the slowness with which governments and leaders around the world are reacting to them. We are facing a transition that is not just technological, but profoundly ethical and existential.
That's why I consider it almost compulsory reading for anyone who wants to understand the forces that are already shaping our present and designing our future. That's how I came up with the idea of condensing the central ideas of this essential work. Instead of immersing yourself in the pages of the book for hours, you can spend 24 minutes reading this summary – a simple invitation to reflect.
Who are the authors?
The authors of The Coming Wave are Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar. Suleyman is the co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI, leading companies in artificial intelligence, and currently serves as CEO of Microsoft AI. Bhaskar is a writer, editor and researcher with a focus on technology, culture and the digital economy. Together, they argue that we are facing a new era shaped by two main forces: artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. And that trying to contain this transformation would be like trying to hold back a tsunami with our bare hands.
Without further ado, grab your cup of tea (or coffee) and read on:
What's next?
Since the dawn of civilization, human progress has advanced in technological waves of great impact. These waves are not isolated events, but recurring cycles of profound transformation that completely change how we live, work and organize ourselves as a society.
Suleyman uses the metaphor of the "wave" - present in myths from different cultures – to show how certain moments in history emerge with devastating and transformative force, as they cause seismic advances in all areas of human life. The next big wave is already on the move, and it can't be stopped.
Historical examples include: fire, agriculture, writing, the steam engine, electricity and the internet.
These technologies shape not only our tools, but our bodies, minds and cultures. We are the direct result of evolution in symbiosis with technology.
So this new wave is driven by technologies that:
- They are general (they apply to practically everything)
- They climb incredibly quickly
- They are becoming increasingly autonomous
- They have a large-scale impact, including political and geopolitical ones
- They are impossible to contain by traditional regulation methods
What's more, these technologies are being developed under the strong incentive of international competition, huge financial rewards and a culture of open innovation – which speeds up the process even more.
The pattern of history: proliferation and acceleration
Major technological innovations:
- They start out as a rarity, often discredited
- They proliferate rapidly when they become cheaper and easier to use
- They transform society profoundly, to the point of becoming invisible – as if they had always existed
And there are two main factors that fuel the proliferation and acceleration of these innovations:
- Constant demand for better and cheaper solutions and
- Competition and imitation, which further drive technological progress
IThis has been repeated from stone tools to silicon chips. The difference is that each The new wave is stronger, faster and more penetrating than the previous one. The Industrial Revolution, for example, took centuries. The digital one, just decades. Today, we are experiencing several waves at the same time, intensifying the speed of change.
Promise or catastrophe?
On the one hand, AI and synthetic biology can:
- Curing previously incurable diseases
- Creating economic surpluses
- Helping to combat the climate crisis
- Producing clean and affordable energy
- Improving the quality of life for billions
But on the other hand, they can too:
- Creating new forms of warfare (including cyber and biological)
- Empowering authoritarian regimes and increasing mass surveillance
- Unleashing artificial pandemics
- Increasing structural unemployment with mass automation
- Destabilizing nation states and causing social collapse
Suleyman warns: the question isn't whether this can happen – it's how prepared we are to deal with this complexity.
The problem of containment
How do you maintain control over such powerful, fast and unpredictable technologies?
The answer is not blind pessimism, but neither is it naive optimism. According to Suleyman, our biggest trap today is avoiding discomfort, looking away from the darkest possibilities and trusting that "everything will work out".
Talking about the next wave means:
- Face reality without filters
- Overcoming denial and fear
- Recognize that failing ethically is also a type of technological failure
- Creating a new type of global, collaborative governance
It's not about stopping, it's about planning
What is the "containment problem"?
Technological containment is the challenge of controlling the impacts and unforeseen consequences of disruptive innovations. When a new technology is launched, its effects multiply in different directions, often beyond the creators' intentions. Even the most well-intentioned inventions, such as Edison's phonograph or Nobel's explosives, have been used in unforeseen ways.
Containment is rare, flawed and difficult. And even when it happens, it doesn't guarantee safety. Nevertheless, it is necessary. The world needs mechanisms to maintain social and ethical control over technologies that are evolving at an exponential rate. The real challenge of the 21st century is not to invent, but to limit, contain and redirect - so that technology continues to serve humanity, and not the other way around.
The book then argues that containment may not be possible - but that, for our own good, it needs to be. This requires coordinated action between governments, companies and citizens. It's not enough to wait for regulations; the author believes that the debate needs to start with each and every one of us.
Not least because resisting technology almost never works in the long term. Throughout history, from the Luddites to rulers such as Emperor Qianlong in China, many have tried to stop technological waves – but progress has eventually taken hold. Even when societies say "no", time and falling prices end up making technologies accessible and irresistible.
The exception: nuclear weapons
A rare case of successful containment was that of nuclear weapons. Despite their enormous destructive power and strategic advantages, the world imposed strict curbs. After Hiroshima and Nagasaki, agreements such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty prevented the technology from spreading like others. This was only possible due to the extremely high cost, complexity and collective fear.
Revanche effects and non-linear consequences
Technology works as a dynamic and unpredictable system. The spread of an innovation can generate second-, third- or fourth-order consequences - known as "rebound effects". For example, the Gutenberg press, created with the intention of printing Bibles, ended up catalyzing the Reformation and challenging the power of the Catholic Church.
Intelligence Technology
The birth of real AI: DeepMind and DQN
In 2012, at DeepMind's London office, a group of researchers created the DQN (Deep Q-Network) algorithm, which was trained to learn classic Atari games on its own. The milestone was when DQN learned an unprecedented and efficient strategy for the game on its own Breakoutand reveals its potential for discovering knowledge.
The advance of deep learning
The initial success of DQN marked an important leap forward: AI was no longer a distant idea and began to demonstrate concrete capabilities. Shortly afterwards, another milestone occurred with the emergence of AlexNet, a system that won an international visual recognition competition (ImageNet) in 2012, beating its competitors by 10% – an extraordinary feat.
How deep learning works
Deep learning uses neural networks that "mimic" the workings of the human brain. They learn from large volumes of data, automatically adjusting their own parameters based on previous errors (backpropagation). This approach has led to solving the challenge of computer vision.
Therefore, the explosion of Large Scale Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-2, GPT-3 and GPT-4, marks a watershed. These models are trained on trillions of words taken from the internet and are able to predict, generate and complete texts with surprising accuracy. The GPT-4, for example, writes poetry, interprets laws, generates codes, answers exams like the GRE and even designs applications.
Computer vision in everyday life
Thanks to deep learning, AI can now accurately recognize objects, faces and scenes. It is used in Tesla cars, Amazon supermarkets, video game sensors, airports, surveillance systems and even medical diagnostics. It's present in our cities, cameras, cell phones and social networks.
The challenge of scale and the new era of supermodels
The so-called scale hypothesis proposes that the more data and parameters a model receives, the more capable it becomes. This has led to the emergence of supermodels with trillions of parameters. Companies like Google, OpenAI and Meta are advancing rapidly, democratizing access and boosting the use of AI in society.
Conscience, ethics and the limits of AI
Despite the advances, the chapter warns of challenges such as algorithmic bias, disinformation and the ethical use of AI. Cases such as LaMDA - a system that sparked debates about artificial consciousness – show that although models are not conscious, they can simulate convincing dialogues, confusing even experts.
Capable AI and the near future
The concept of Capable Artificial Intelligence (CAI) describes systems that don't just generate text, but execute complex tasks, plan, interact with APIs and operate in real time. It is predicted that in 3 to 5 years we will see AI models capable of running businesses, generating profits and executing plans with minimal human supervision.
The Quantum Computing Revolution
Quantum computing promises to revolutionize science and industry. Even at an early stage, it already makes it possible to process data and solve problems far beyond the capabilities of traditional computers. One example is Google's milestone in 2019, with a machine that performed in seconds a calculation that would have taken 10,000 years on an ordinary PC. But along with power comes risk: quantum computing could compromise all current digital security - the so-called "Q-Day" - forcing governments and banks to invest millions to protect themselves.
The Next Energy Transition
Energy is as vital as intelligence. The next wave foresees an energy turnaround with a focus on renewable sources (solar, wind, nuclear fusion). The cost of solar energy has fallen dramatically, and fusion, considered the "holy grail" of clean energy, is closer to becoming a reality with recent advances. Energy change will support the growth of AI, robotics and data centers in the coming decades.
The Age of Robotics and Physical Automation
Robotics, the physical arm of AI, is already transforming industries. From agricultural robots like John Deere's to robots operating in AI-coordinated swarms to pollinate crops, automation is expanding. Robots perform tasks with precision, tirelessly and in hostile environments such as factories, fields and 3D-printed construction sites.
Nanotechnology and the Post-Wave
After the next wave, technologies such as advanced AI, quantum computing and biotechnology could integrate with nanotechnology, making it possible to manipulate individual atoms. This would make it possible to create materials, medicines and structures directly from the molecular level, ushering in a new era of production - a technical and practical "intelligence explosion".
The Four Characteristics of the Next Technological Wave
The next wave of transformative technologies will be marked by four main characteristics: asymmetry, hyper-evolution, omni-use and total autonomy. These trends represent not just an acceleration in progress, but a qualitative and systemic change with a global impact. Find out below how each of these forces will shape the future.
1. Asymmetry: colossal transfer of power
Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and drones are redistributing power - from governments and armies to individuals and small organizations. A single AI algorithm or program can have disproportionate, positive or catastrophic impacts. For example, a US$ 200 drone may require a US$ 3 million missile to shoot down, illustrating the asymmetry between attack and defense. Ihis represents a radical redistribution of power that is no longer limited to governments and armies - anyone can access and operate technologies that were previously the exclusive preserve of major powers.
2. Hyperevolution: infinite acceleration
We are entering an era where innovation is happening at exponential speed. Moore's law is still valid: in 10 years, 1 dollar will buy 100 times more computing power than it does today. Software is evolving faster than regulations, and AI is already designing new materials, chemical compounds and medicines in an automated way.
3. Omniuso: technologies for everything
The next wave is made up of general-purpose technologies - such as electricity or AI itself - that can be applied to everything. AI already creates medicines, but it can also be used to develop chemical weapons with the same algorithm. This "dual-use" character (civilian and military) can be used for both good and evilmaking control and regulation even more challenging.
4. Autonomy: machines that decide for themselves
Autonomy marks a profound breakthrough. Systems such as AlphaGo and GPT-4 already demonstrate the ability to learn, perform tasks and make decisions without human supervision. Soon, machines will be able to create and improve themselves, initiating autonomous development cycles. This raises the "gorilla problem": just as we dominate gorillas despite their strength, a super-intelligent AI could dominate us because of its cognitive superiority. This raises ethical and practical questions: will humans remain in the decision-making loop?
The End of Human Control?
Many of these technologies operate like black boxes: not even their creators fully understand how they make decisions. As AI becomes more autonomous and unpredictable, the idea of total human control weakens. Synthetic organisms are already demonstrating a "life of their own", and systems are becoming increasingly inexplicable.
Technology is about what it means to be human
Technology doesn't advance because of a cold logic of progress, but because it responds to human impulses: curiosity, fear, greed, need. The problem is that many discussions focus on the "how" of technology, forgetting the "why" - and this dehumanizes the debate. History shows that no technological wave has ever been contained. When there are rewards at stake, the question is no longer "should we?" but "when?".
Rivalry, profit and ego: the three great motivators
- Competition between powers (geopolitics);
- The potential for financial profit and return on investment;
- And perhaps the most powerful: the human ego.
AI as the biggest economic prize of the 21st century
AI represents a huge source of profit, creating deep incentives for innovation. Projections indicate that AI alone could add up to 15.7 trillion dollars to the global economy by 2030. Venture capital, R&D investment and huge corporate bets show that we are facing a new Industrial Revolution - but now guided by algorithms.
The Grand Bargain: How the state can (or can't) contain the next wave of technology
For centuries, the centralization of power in the nation-state has been the dominant formula for guaranteeing peace, progress and stability. In exchange for state authority, citizens obtain security, order and prosperity. This "grand bargain" has shaped the modern world - but is being put to the test by the next wave of technological transformations.
The risk of institutional collapse
With increasing automation, AI and disruptive technologies, the foundations of the modern state are weakening. Liberal democracies face crises of confidence, while authoritarian regimes risk falling into techno-nationalism or "zombie" governments - unstable, worn out and dysfunctional. Both extremes threaten the ability to contain the risks of the new technological era.
The future of governance in times of disruption
The book warns that dealing with the next wave will require highly effective states: governments that are mature, stable, reliable and capable of acting with agility. The ability to balance interests, respond to crises and coordinate efforts on a global scale will be decisive. Technology can increase inequalities and polarization if it is not regulated with strategic vision.
Fragile states and nervous societies
Even with objective indicators of life improvement, such as literacy and access to water, there is a growing sense of insecurity and mistrust - especially in the West. The sum of past crises (pandemics, wars, climate change, inflation) has weakened institutions and undermined public faith. The result: anxious, impulsive and politically unstable societies.
No silver bullet
According to the authors, there is no magic solution ("silver bullet") to contain the coming wave. It will shake the political, social and economic foundations. The challenge will be to reinvent the relationship between technology and state power, ensuring that advances are used for the collective good - and not to deepen the chaos.
Fragility Amplifiers: How the Next Wave Increases Global Instability
The "amplifiers of fragility", modern mechanisms that make societies and nation-states more vulnerable in times of crisis. As we enter an era of exponential technological transformations, these amplifiers become more dangerous, connected and difficult to contain.
1 National Emergency and the WannaCry Case
The WannaCry cyber attack, which took place in 2017, is presented as a warning. The ransomware paralyzed the British health system (NHS) and compromised thousands of computers around the world. The attack exploited a flaw in legacy Microsoft systems, revealing just how exposed national infrastructures are to sophisticated digital threats - often originating from espionage tools developed by government agencies.
2. Artificial Intelligence and Human Psychology
AI systems such as Cicero, developed by Meta, are already capable of exploiting human flaws, manipulating emotions and social strategies to win board games and - potentially - influence elections. AI's ability to simulate empathy and adapt behavior paves the way for its use in disinformation and social engineering.
3. Disinformation as a Geopolitical Weapon
State-funded disinformation campaigns - such as Russia's in the 2016 US election - show how AI is increasing the sophistication and reach of these attacks. With the rise of deepfakes and synthetic media, public trust, journalism and democracy face a new crisis of legitimacy.
4. Biological Leaks and Unintentional Hazards
The chapter recalls the case of the "Russian flu" in 1977 as an example of a possible laboratory leak, highlighting the growing risk of unintentional instability. Even well-intentioned research can trigger pandemics, increasing the sense of institutional and social fragility.
5. Armed Robots and the Primacy of the Offensive
The assassination of Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh by an AI-controlled robot marked a new level in the use of autonomous weapons. The automated offensive poses a direct risk to global stability by drastically reducing the barriers to entry for lethal actions.
6. Collapse of the Information Ecosystem
The rise of synthetic media and malicious information creates a polluted information environment, where public trust and social cohesion collapse. Society loses the ability to distinguish what is real, fueling political instability and polarization.
7. Automation and the job market
Automation is destroying traditional jobs on a global scale, creating social, economic and political tensions. Even workers in emerging countries or in outsourced services face replacement risks, while governments struggle to sustain social welfare systems.
8. The Omnissocial Revolution and Systemic Fragility
Today's major transformation doesn't just affect isolated sectors. It redistributes power and risk at all levels of society. This results in an increasingly fragile nation-state, with its original "grand bargain" - security in exchange for obedience - now deeply shaken.
The Future of Nations: How the Next Technological Wave is Redefining Global Power
The concentration of technological power and simultaneous decentralization are transforming the role of nation states. Just as the stirrup altered the balance of power on the medieval battlefield, today's technology is drastically shifting traditional power structures.
The Revolution of Power with AI and Megacorporations
The next wave of technology is concentrating data, resources and capabilities in the hands of a few global companies, creating "corporate superstars" that amass profits, talent and influence on an unprecedented scale.
Companies like Apple, Google, Samsung and Amazon operate like modern empires, influencing national economies and surpassing the reach of many governments.
With generative AI, 3D printing, biotechnology and robotics, decentralized and on-demand production is becoming feasible, profoundly changing the logic of the supply chain and the nature of work.
States Under Pressure: Centralization, Fragmentation and Turbulence
Nation-states are facing a crisis of legitimacy. Technology is decentralizing authority, questioning who makes decisions and how they are implemented.
The concentration of data and surveillance can both strengthen authoritarian regimes and undermine fragile democracies.
Fragmentation is growing: mega-corporations, cities, religious communities and even individuals will be able to organize their own systems of governance, education and security - which could lead to the creation of micro-states and networks parallel to the state.
Surveillance and Authoritarianism: The Case of China
The example of China shows how technology can be used for total control: facial recognition, biometric data, purchase monitoring and real-time surveillance shape the behavior of the population.
This model is being exported globally, including to democratic countries, which points to a new paradigm of digital power and silent repression.
Contradictions of the Future: Centralization or Decentralization?
The future will bring a paradoxical coexistence of centralizing forces (megacorporations and closed AI models) and decentralizing ones (open source, biohacking, personal AIs).
Each AI's mission is to fulfill the objectives of its owner, be it a state, a company or an individual on their sofa.
The next wave won't just be technical - it will be political, economic and existential.
The New Global Chessboard
We are moving towards a world where states, companies and individuals will compete for new forms of sovereignty. Technology will create parallel centers of power and will require reimagining governance in a scenario of instability, surveillance and radical creativity.
The dilemma: extreme control or dangerous freedom
Faced with these threats, governments will have to decide between:
- total surveillance, with the sacrifice of individual freedom and autonomy, or
- acceptance of risk, with the possibility of catastrophic destruction.
Both paths are dystopian. The "AI-cracy", marked by massive data collection and coercive control, is already showing its first signs, especially after the acceptance of extreme measures in the Covid-19 pandemic.
The false consolation of the technological moratorium
Suspending technological progress sounds tempting, but it's unsustainable. Without innovation, society stagnates and collapses. The challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, an ageing population and economic pressure demand new technological solutions.
An inevitable dystopia?
With market incentives and competition between nations, humanity is unlikely to stop the "next wave". Repression may seem like a solution, but it only redefines the dilemma: without new technologies, we collapse; with new technologies without containment, we destroy ourselves.
Containment must be possible
Containing the existential risks brought about by emerging technologies - such as advanced AI, biotechnology and robotics - is urgent and indispensable. The Covid-19 pandemic has served as a wake-up call about our collective vulnerability, showing that in the face of systemic threats, society still lacks preparedness, coordination and strategic vision.
The illusion of harmless progress
The authors criticize the popular perception that technology is harmless or superficial, associated with social networks or gadgets. They point out that, in fact, it permeates all spheres of modern life - from agricultural irrigation to intensive medicine - and therefore requires a serious and strategic approach.
The dilemma of regulation
Although regulation emerges as a recurring response in global discussions, it is insufficient on its own. The speed of innovation, institutional fragmentation and economic incentives make real containment difficult. The challenge is not only to create laws, but also to structure effective national and international surveillance, monitoring and coordination systems.
Containment as an active strategy
The authors propose a new paradigm: "contained containment", i.e. shaping, mitigating and governing technologies simultaneously with their development. This involves reducing damage, implementing safeguards and maintaining human control over complex systems. To work, this containment needs to be global, coherent and based on international collaboration.
- Understanding technology failure modes;
- Analysis of their asymmetric impacts;
- Checking operational autonomy, ease of use, cost and geopolitical potential.
Geopolitical and cultural obstacles
Global containment is made even more complex by the divergent interests of nation states. While the European Union is advancing regulation, countries like China and the US have conflicting visions. China, for example, despite its ethical rhetoric, adopts militarized AI policies with little real restriction.
Criteria for evaluating technologies
The book presents the following strategic questions to guide containment policies:
- Is the technology general or specific purpose?
- Does it confer a geopolitical advantage?
- Does it have autonomous characteristics or does it allow for asymmetric impact?
- Are there any viable alternatives?
- Is technology moving away from atoms and towards bits?
These criteria help to predict whether a particular technology will be difficult to contain - the more autonomous, invisible, cheap and global, the greater the challenge.
A call to collective action
Despite the seriousness, the authors argue that there is still time. Tackling the next wave requires global cooperation, institutional innovation and public engagement. We need to create a culture of containment that unites experts, governments, companies and citizens. The future demands that containment and progress go hand in hand, with a balance between freedom and responsibility.
Ten steps towards containment
The authors recognize that containing technologies with a profound impact, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and autonomous systems, may seem impossible. However, they say that such containment must be possible - it is the only viable way to protect humanity's future in the face of exponential and uncontrollable change.
The authors then propose 10 essential steps to contain the next wave:
1. Technical security: concrete measures to prevent damage and maintain control over dangerous technologies.
2. Audits: transparency and accountability from the outset of technological development.
3. Bottlenecks: tools that slow down technological progress and allow time for regulatory adaptation.
4. Creators: encourage developers to include safeguards right from the design stage.
5. Companies: aligning business models and corporate incentives with technological containment.
6. Governments: support effective regulations and mitigation strategies at national and global level.
7. Alliances: international cooperation to harmonize laws, policies and containment actions.
8. Culture: public sharing of learnings and mistakes to foster collective intelligence.
9. Movements: social mobilization to demand accountability and push for ethical restraint.
10. Coherence: ensure that all these fronts work in an integrated manner and reinforce each other, avoiding the cacophony of disconnected measures.
Grounded hope
Finally, the authors argue that, despite the scale of the challenge, every action matters. Containment requires collective effort, perseverance and the courage to face complex dilemmas. Even with uncertainties, it's worth trying: it's the best chance we have of guaranteeing a safe and sustainable future.
Life after the Anthropocene
Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar draw a parallel between the Luddite movement of the 19th century and the technological challenges of the 21st century. In the past, textile workers destroyed machines for fear of the impact of automation on their lives. Although their actions failed to curb technological advancement, decades later their descendants benefited from the increased quality of life provided by the same technologies that had once caused them suffering.
This story serves as a metaphor for the present: the new technological wave - based on AI, biotechnology and automation - also generates fear, inequality and disorientation. However, according to the authors, the aim should not be to stop this wave, but to sculpt it with conscience and human responsibility.
The authors argue that the technology of the future must be adapted to people, and not the other way around. This requires a new kind of restraint: humane, democratic, transparent and focused on collective well-being. This restraint is not about irrational resistance to progress, but about shaping a path in which technological innovation goes hand in hand with the people. human values.
The final vision of the chapter is cautious hope: the future will be shaped by interactions with increasingly present artificial intelligences, which will help with decisions personal, emotional and professional. Technology should be a tool for human flourishing - enhancing creativity, health and meaningful relationships.
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